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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet the current race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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