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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."