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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.